INTRODUCTION

The 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake was a high angle thrust earthquake in the Chinese mainland，resulting in huge casualties and property losses.Only 5 years after the Wenchuan earthquake，the Lushan MS7.0 earthquake occurred in the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault.Although these two strong earthquakes occurred in the Longmenshan fault，the results of the aftershock relocation showed that the rupture of the Lushan earthquake and the rupture of the Wenchuan earthquake were not connected， and there was a“seismic gap”between them.The rupture space has aroused widespread concern among seismologists，and Chen Yuntai et al.（2013） pointed out that the “seismic gap” has a potential risk of MW6.8 earthquakes.Xu Xiwei et al. （2013） and Gao Yuan et al. （2013） both considered that it was necessary to pay close attention to the risk of rupture of the “seismic gap”.Therefore， it is an urgent question to solve the problem of how much the void gap is affected by the stress loading of two earthquakes，and how the probability of the moderate strong earthquakes occurs.

Research shows that the Coulomb failure stress changes produced by strong earthquakes have great influence on the subsequent earthquake location and time（Harris R.A.，1998； Stein R.S.， 1999； Das S.et al.，1981； Zhou Longquan et al.，2008； Wan Yongge et al.，2010； Shan Bin et al.， 2012， 2013； Song Jin et al.， 2011， 2014）.Dieterich （Dieterich J.H.， 1979，1981；Dieterich J.H.，1994） puts forward the rate-state Friction law and deduces the effect of stress on regional seismicity，which is called the Dieterich model.The cumulative earthquake probability of strong earthquakes in the study area can be estimated by the Coulomb stress change and the regional background seismic activity as input，which provides a reference for studying the regional earthquake risk.After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008， Toda S.et al. （2008） took into account the co-seismic Coulomb stress change and the regional background seismicity probability of the Wenchuan mainshock and believed that the occurrence rate of MW≥6.0 earthquake in the south section of the Longmenshan fault had obviously increased.Shao Zhigang et al. （2010） used the viscoelastic medium model to calculate the Coulomb stress of the Wenchuan earthquake and the regional background seismicity probability，and believed that the seismic risk of the Dawu-Kangding section of the Xianshuihe fault and Longmenshan fault was higher.Liu Boyan et al. （2013） calculated the variation of the surrounding earthquake occurrence rate caused by the co-seismic Coulomb stress of the Wenchuan earthquake，and the result shows that the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake made the occurrence of the Lushan earthquake earlier，and it is necessary to pay close attention to the possibility occurrence of M6.0 earthquakes in the Xianshuihe fault.The Lushan earthquake occurred in 2013.Lei Xinglin et al.（2013） calculated the stress disturbances of the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes， and thought that the Wenchuan earthquake did produce the stress triggering effect in the“seismic gap”， but the effect of the Dayi earthquake was not completely eliminated till 2013.The results of Xu Jing et al. （2014）， Liu Mian et al. （2014） and Jia Ke et al. （2014） showed that the Coulomb stress increased significantly in the“seismic gap”of the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan， and there was a possibility of an earthquake with M7.0 in the “seismic gap”.Most of the previous research focused on the stress loading of the two strong earthquakes in the“seismic gap”， but no research has been done in terms of the background seismicity to estimate the cumulative earthquake probability of an MW≥6.0 earthquake in this space under the action of two earthquake stress disturbances.This paper first calculates the cumulative Coulomb stress of the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes， based on the layered viscoelastic medium model， and then works out the cumulative occurrence probability of MW≥6.0 earthquakes in the“seismic gap”with the velocity state frictional law of the Dieterich J. （1994） and the regional background seismicity.

1 RESEARCH METHODS

1.1 Coulomb Stress Triggering

Coulomb stress triggering refers to the stress change caused by earlier earthquakes，and plays a role of promotion or inhibition for future earthquake activity in the research area （Harris R.A.，1998）.The specific method is to project the stress change tensor of the earlier earthquake to focus on the fault plane and the sliding direction，and calculate the Coulomb fault stress change ΔCFS.

水资源动态管理系统以计算机、通信网络、遥感技术、水资源自动监测以及远程监控等技术为依托，整合环保、气象、水文、防汛、公用事业等涉水相关信息，通过对全市供水水源地实时水质水量信息和用水状况的在线监控分析，进行实时调度配置管理，实现全市水资源的科学调度和优化配置。该系统建立了包括全市各县（市、区）现有水资源量和人均水资源量，各水源点、取水点、用水户的实时流量，各水库、河流水质等数据库。

田园娱乐型古村古镇应抓住“振兴乡村”战略的机遇，通过适当开展田园休闲娱乐活动，形成历史景观与田园风光相互依存的生态农业娱乐区。荆坪古村的农家乐等旅游活动是其显著特色，可以“农家乐”为切入点，凭借历史文化与田园风光相互衬托的资源优势，将包含古韵古风、质朴自然的传统农业文化元素渗透到生态农业和现代观光农业建设中去，增强古村古镇娱乐性，形成集古村古镇旅游与乡村旅游于一体的旅游地。

2.2.1 Aftershock Duration

where μ in the formula is the friction coefficient， Δτsand Δσnare respectively the shear stress and the normal stress at the fracture level， Δτsis positive along the sliding direction， Δσnis positive， and Δp is the pore fluid pressure change.The effect of the pore pressure reduction coefficient of friction can be expressed by μ′＝μ（1-B）.Wherein， B is the Skempton coefficient with the range is 0-1 （Rice J.R.， 1992）.Therefore， formula （1） becomes

In formula （6）， r is the occurrence rate of the regional earthquake background before the main event，A is the frictional constitutive state parameter，and¯σ is the effective positive stress，and tais the duration of stress disturbance.

1.2 Earthquake Probability Based on the Dieterich Model

From January 1， 1900 to December 31， 2007， the Longmenshan fault only had 3 MS≥6.0 earthquakes， and according to the regional background seismicity formula r≥M ＝ N／Δt（where N is the occurrences of the earthquake with magnitude larger than M， Δt is the time interval），r≥6.0 ＝0.028 t／a can be obtained.The frictional constitutive state parameter A is 0.01 and the effective positive stress is 10MPa respectively with the help of the previous practice （Dieterich J.H.et al.， 1996）.

The mathematical expression of the R-S model is

In formula （3）， A and B are empirical constants， representing the short-term direct and long-term effects of the change of sliding rate on the friction coefficient.V and V0are sliding rates and background reference sliding rates respectively.μ is the steady-state coefficient of friction when V＝V0.Dcis the critical sliding distance，which indicates the distance required to stabilize the particle in the interface after the rate change.The state parameter θ describes the variations of the dynamic friction coefficient with time，and have two forms of the change of the state parameter， namely the“slip”form with the change of the slip distance and the“slow”form of the state parameter and the slip rate.

Some studies have shown that the“slip”form is more suitable for the description of the fault nucleation process（Dieterich J.H.， 1979， 1981； Dieterich J.H.， 1996）.

Toda S.et al. （1998） used the logarithmic coordinate linear fitting time of the number of aftershocks，and the duration of the aftershock is the time when the fitting line returns to the background seismicity level.In this paper，the background seismicity level was computed in the 100km range around the Lushan epicenter.The ML≥3.0 earthquakes occurred 299 times between 1970 and 2007， and the monthly frequency of the ML≥3.0 background seismicity was 0.67.According to the Chinese Seismic Network measurement，as of December 2016 the Lushan earthquake aftershock area has a total of more than 385 ML≥3.0 earthquakes， including 50 ML4.0-4.9 earthquake and 13 ML5.0-5.9 earthquake.With calculation by the unit time（month） and linear fitting in the logarithmic coordinate system， the aftershock frequency attenuation curve is found to return to the background seismicity level，namely the Lushan earthquake aftershock duration （see for Fig.3）.It can be seen from Fig.3 that the monthly frequency of the sequence is constantly decaying after the main earthquake occurs，and the fitting curve reflects the trend of the aftershock attenuation.The regression of the ML≥3.0 aftershock to the background level needs 10.4 months.The Lushan aftershock duration lasted about 10 months.Using the same method， Shen Wenhao et al. （2013） found that the duration of the Wenchuan aftershock will last for about 80 years.Because of the great difference in the aftershock duration of the two strong earthquakes，the selection of the tavalue needs further discussion.The results of the cumulative earthquake probability obtained by different tavalues are compared in the following 2.2.3 section，and it is found that the tavalue selection has a small influence on the change tendency and magnitude of cumulative earthquake probability in the stress perturbation values produced by the two strong earthquakes.Considering the magnitude of the calculation target is MS6.0，the tavalue of the cumulative earthquake probability is assumed to be 10 months in Section 2.22.It should be pointed out that the tavalue， in physics， is weakening the possible impact of the Wenchuan earthquake.

When ΔCFS ＞ 0， the stress change is advantageous to subsequent earthquakes， otherwise it is unfavorable to the occurrence of earthquakes.

Shao Zhigang et al. （2010） points out that the earthquake incidence rate based on the co-seismic and annual Coulomb stress change can be expressed as

Based on layered viscoelastic medium model（Xu Jing et al.， 2013）， we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress and the post-earthquake cumulative effect of the Wenchuan earthquake as the Lushan epicenter by using the PSGRN／PSCMP software provided by Wang Rongjiang et al.（2006）.The seismic fault parameters are obtained by the inversion of Ji C.et al. （2008） for the limited fault rupture model of the Wenchuan earthquake.The effective friction parameter is set as 0.4，and the depth of calculation is 10km.The result shows that the co-seismic Coulomb stress of the Wenchuan earthquake in the Lushan epicenter is 0.016MPa，greater than the threshold of 0.01MPa which is usually considered to be effective in promoting subsequent earthquakes （Harris R.A.， 1998）.After 5 years， the viscoelastic effect was accumulating， and the Coulomb stress reached 0.021MPa after the earthquake.Therefore，the Wenchuan earthquake had an obvious stress triggering effect on the occurrence of the Lushan earthquake，and the viscoelastic effect can not be neglected.

4）采用现代信息技术，对机械类课程中复杂产品设计、机械加工过程、机械振动控制以及加工表面质量等知识点进行改革与应用。

The earthquake probability is converted into the cumulative Poisson probability P（Toda S.et al.， 2008） for at least one earthquake， and its formula is

众多的家政企业在各个角度做了众多的尝试，推动了家政服务业整体供给在规模和结构化发展方面有了较大的提升，但优质的家政服务人员供给并未达到想象中的高比例，还需从培训端进一步的聚焦和发力，才能推动整个家政服务行业的高质量发展。

Based on the R-S model and the Coulomb stress loading results generated by the two strong earthquakes， this paper calculates the MW≥6.0 earthquake occurrence rate of the“seismic gap”of the Longmenshan fault，and finally obtains the change of the cumulative probability of occurrence of the earthquake at any time.

1) 根据表1的数值，批发价作为中间变量，只会影响到不同成员之间的收益分配，并不会影响供应链期望收益和最优订货决策.

2 CUMULATIVE EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY

2.1 Static Coulomb Stress

In formula（7）， k plays a role as R in formula（6） and is the first stress loading of the kth year.n is the maximum year length in the calculation.i is the ith year after the main earthquake.t0is the occurrence year of the main earthquake.tkis the earthquake probability calculation year.

In this paper， the effect of the stress disturbance in the“seismic gap”of the middle-south section of the Longmenshan fault is studied by using the inversion result of the finite fault model of Ji C.et al. （2008） and the inversion of the Lushan seismic finite fault rupture model of Zhang Yong et al. （2013）.Because of the small area of the“seismic gap”， this paper chooses its center point position to estimate the stress disturbance of the“seismic gap”.The results （see Fig.2（b）and Table 2） show that the central point of the“seismic gap”is loaded by the co-seismic Coulomb stress of two strong earthquakes，and the cumulative stress changes are increasing.The co-seismic Coulomb stress produced by the Wenchuan earthquake is 0.053MPa，and that produced by the Lushan earthquake is 0.004MPa.By 2030，the co-seismic cumulative value of the two earthquakes and the post-earthquake stress will reach 0.067MPa.

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of ML≥3.0 earthquakes in the Longmenshan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake

2.2 Cumulative Earthquake Probability

The Coulomb fault stress change ΔCFS is defined as （Harris R.A.，1998；Stein R.S.et al.，1992）

Based on the R-S model， Dieterich J.H. （1996） further analyzes the influence of stress change on regional seismicity， deduces the earthquake incidence model（i.e.the Dieterich model）and analyzes the influence of the relative parameters on the earthquake incidence.The calculation formula of earthquake probability is

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of ΔCFS in the Lushan epicenter and the“seismic gap”

（a） ΔCFS generated by the Wenchuan earthquake in the Lushan epicenter； （b） ΔCFS generated by the two strong earthquakes of Wenchuan and Kushan in the“seismic gap”

2.2.2 Cumulative Earthquake Probability

There are many frictional constitutive relationships that can be used to explain the laboratory observations of rock friction，which are very consistent with experimental data and are widely accepted as rate-state friction laws（Rate and State variable friction law， or R-S model for short），which can explain a series of laboratory observations such as periodic viscous sliding，selfpersistent periodic oscillation， multiple cycle phenomena and chaotic oscillation （Shao Zhigang et al.， 2010）.One of the important applications of the R-S model in seismic research is the change of regional earthquake probability after simulating stress disturbances.For example，Catalli F.et al. （2008）， based on the R-S model， used the Coulomb fault stress changes as stress disturbances to discuss the influence of strong earthquakes on regional seismicity，and the interaction between the events in the 1997 Briatore earthquake group in Italy was analyzed.

Fig.3 The relationship between the monthly frequency of aftershock activity and the time attenuation after the 2013 Lushan earthquake The circle is the monthly frequency value of the aftershock data，and the dotted line is the background seismic seismicity level

After the Wenchuan earthquake，the Lushan epicenter was strongly subjected to the coseismic and post-earthquake stress loading （see Table 1 for the detail）， and according to Formulae（6），（7） and（8），we calculate the probability of a greater than 2008-2013 M≥6.0 earthquake occurred in the Lushan epicenter， which is shown in Fig.6（b）.From Fig.4（b）， it can be seen that the stress disturbance by the Wenchuan earthquake causes a significant increase in the cumulative earthquake probability of a M≥6.0 earthquake in the Lushan epicenter，and that the cumulative earthquake probability of a M≥6.0 earthquake in Lushan is up to 18%，which advances the occurrence time of the Lushan earthquake.This is basically consistent with the conclusion of Liu Boyan et al. （2013）.

（5）完善项目库的建设。项目库是预算管理的基础和支撑，对项目库实行常年开放和滚动管理。一是强化项目库约束。未纳入项目库管理的项目，原则上不予安排预算资金。二是做好日常项目编报和管理。对于经论证通过的项目，应及时纳入项目库，成熟一个，编报一个，并依据“轻重缓急”排序。一旦学校有专项资金到达，财务部门就可以依据到达的资金额度和项目排序安排预算，改变以往临时申报、评审、立项的做法，大大提高资金的下达效率。

Table 1 ΔCFS and PMat the Lushan epicenter

Time 2008-05-12 2008-12-31 2009-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-12-31 2012-12-31 2013-04-20 Coulomb stress change value／MPa 0.0168 0.0174 0.0180 0.0183 0.0187 0.0190 0.0191 Cumulative M≥6.0 earthquake probability 3% 6% 8% 11% 13% 15% 18%

The cumulative earthquake probability of the central point of the“seismic gap”of the Longmenshan fault is shown as follows（see Table 2 and Fig.5（b））.Due to the co-seismic and continuous loading after the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan，the cumulative earthquake probability at the center point is increasing，and the probability of a M≥6.0 earthquake will reach 66%at the end of 2030.Based on the above results，we think that there is still a danger of a middle and strong earthquake in the middle-south section of the Longmenshan fault.

2013年，河北水利以党的十八大精神为指导，坚持开放思维、市场思维、科技思维、法治思维，积极谋划和推进全省水利可持续发展，取得了显著成效。重大水利项目建设推进有力，水资源管理工作扎实开展，民生水利进一步加强，水生态环境明显改善，全省水利总投入达196.5亿元，较2012年增加14%，水利事业呈现蓬勃健康发展势头，为全省经济社会发展提供了有力支撑。

Fig.4 ΔCFS and PMchanges over time in the Lushan epicenter after Wenchuan earthquake（a） ΔCFS changes over time； （b） PMchanges over time

Table 2 ΔCFS and PM in the“seismic gap”

Time 2008-05-12 2008-12-31 2013-04-20 2017-12-31 2020-12-31 2030-12-31 Coulomb stress change value／MPa 0.0531 0.0538 0.0602 0.0617 0.0628 0.0669 Cumulative M≥6.0 earthquake probability 5% 6% 20% 29% 40% 66%

2.2.3 Effects of Different taand A Values on the Cumulative Earthquake Probability

电力自动化系统在电力工程中的运用，实现了系统对设备的监控，维护与管理。再结合了各种现代化通讯技术的同时，建立了一套完善的电力自动化控制系统。这其中包括对电网数据用户，电网结构以及离线数据等多种信息的保存和处理。

Fig.5 ΔCFS and PMchanges over time in the“seismic gap”（a） ΔCFS changes over time； （b） PMchanges over time

In this paper， a logarithmic coordinate linear fitting method （Toda S.et al.， 1998） is used and it is estimated that the duration of the Lushan aftershocks lasted for about 10 months.Shen Wenhao et al. （2013） used the same method and found that the aftershock duration of the Wenchuan earthquake will last for about 80 years.Because of the difference in the duration of the aftershocks of the two strong earthquakes，the selection of tavalues needs further discussion.In this paper， the center point of the“seismic gap” is taken as the research object， and the cumulative earthquake probability is calculated and compared with different values as tavalues in the periods from 10 months to 160 years.The results show that the difference of tavalue has a little effect on the cumulative earthquake probability in the stress perturbation values produced by the two strong earthquakes（see Fig.6（a））.By the end of 2020， when the tavalue is set to 10 months，the central point cumulative earthquake probability will be 39.6%，and when the ta value is set to 160 years，the central point cumulative probability of the earthquake will be 40.8%；The result shows that the longer the duration of an aftershock，the greater the cumulative probability.

In this paper， the frictional constitutive state parameter A and the effective positive stress are calculated on the basis of the previous practice（Dieterich J.H.et al.，1996），and A＝0.01 and ＝ 10MPa.As for how the A value affects the cumulative earthquake probability， we also use different values for comparison （see Fig.6（b））.The results show that the A value in the stress disturbances generated by the two strong earthquakes has a smaller impact on the cumulative earthquake probability.After the Lushan earthquake， when A takes 0.05， the cumulative earthquake probability of the center point is 20.3% ， and when A takes 10， the result of the cumulative earthquake probability the center point is 20.1%；The result shows that the greater the value of A the smaller the cumulative probability of the earthquake.

Fig.6 Comparison of cumulative earthquake probability of different taand A values

（a） Comparison of cumulative earthquake probability results of different tavalues； （b） comparison of cumulative earthquake probability results of different A values

3 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

After the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake and the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake，a seismic gap still exists in the southern section of Longmenshan fault，the scale of which is equivalent to a MW6.0-7.0 earthquake.The seismogenic ability and the current danger have aroused widespread concern.In order to solve the problem，this paper firstly calculates the coseismic and post stress disturbance of the two earthquakes in Wenchuan and Lushan by the layered viscoelastic medium model.Based on this，the rate-state friction law of Dieterich J.（1994） is combined with the seismic activity level of a M≥6.0 earthquake in the Longmenshan fault， and the cumulative earthquake probability of M6.0 earthquakes in the“gap”is calculated over time.The results show that the cumulative earthquake probability of M6.0 earthquakes increases with time，and will increase to 66%by the end of 2030.

Many uncertainties in the calculation process may result in a certain error in the cumulative earthquake probability.First， the Dayi MS6.2 earthquake occurred in the“seismic gap”in the 1970， which might moderate the stress concentration in the“seismic gap”.Then， the Longmenshan thrust tectonic belt is composed of 3 main faults of the Longmenshan fault，the central fault and the Qianshan fault（Zhang Yueqiao et al.， 2013）， and the“seismic gap”between the Wenchuan and the Lushan earthquakes has certain complexity in geological structure.In this paper， it is simplified as a central point， and the method of receiving the fault parameter is mainly based on the Lushan earthquake focal mechanism.This may have some influence on the final calculation result.Thirdly，the selection of model parameters of the layered viscoelastic medium，especially the setting of viscous coefficients， will introduce some errors to the stress disturbance results of strong earthquakes，thus affecting the final cumulative probability results.At the same time，M6.0 earthquakes have occurred only 3 times in the Longmenshan fault since 1900，and there may be some error in the estimation of background seismicity level.

In addition，the perturbation effect of the Wenchuan earthquake on the Lushan earthquake is calculated by the same method.The results show that the Lushan epicenter is subjected to the continuous co-seismic loading of the Wenchuan earthquake and the stress after the earthquake，the cumulative earthquake probability of M6.0 earthquakes is up to 18%，indicating that the stress disturbance generated by the Wenchuan earthquake may have advanced the Lushan earthquake time， which is basically consistent with the conclusion of Liu Boyan et al. （2013）.Therefore， we believe that although there may be some errors in the results， there is still the danger of middle and strong earthquakes in the“seismic gap”in the middle and southern section of the Longmenshan fault，and the risk is increasing with time.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We owe our sincere thanks to Professor Ji Chen and Professor Zhang Yong for their inversion data for the Wenchuan and the Lushan earthquakes，and Professor Wang Rongjiang for the provision of the PSGRN／PSCMP computing software.We especially thank the reviewers for their pertinent amendments and suggestions for this paper.

REFERENCES

Catalli F.， Cocco M.， Console R.， Chiaraluce L.Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence （Central Italy） through a rate-and state-dependent model［J］.Journal of Geophysics Research， 2008， 88（B12）： B11301.

Chen Yuntai， Yang Zhixian， Zhang Yong， Liu Chao.From 2008 Wenchuan earthquake to 2013 Lushan earthquake ［J］.Scientia Sinica Terrae， 2013， 43（6）： 1064-1072 （in Chinese）.

Das S.， Scholz C.H.Off-fault aftershock clusters caused by shear stress increase ［J］.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America， 1981， 71（5）： 1669-1675.

Dieterich J.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering ［J］.Journal of Geophysics Research， 1994， 99（B2）： 2601-2618.

Dieterich J.H.Modeling of rock friction： 1.Experimental results and constitutive equations ［J］.Journal of Geophysics Research， 1979， 84（B5）： 2161-2168.

Dieterich J.H.Constitutive Properties of Faults with Simulated Gouge ［C］.In： Carter N.L.， Friedman M.，Logan J.M.， Stearns D.W. （Editors）.Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks： The Handin Volume，Geophysical Monography Series， Volume 24.Washington DC：AGU，1981.103-120.

Dieterich J.H.， Kilgore B.Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction ［J］.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America， 1996， 93（9）： 3787-3794.

Gao Yuan， Wang Qiong， Zhao Bo， Shi Yutao.A rupture blank zone in middle south part of Longmenshan Faults：Effect after Lushan MS7.0 earthquake of 20 April 2013 in Sichuan， China ［J］.Science China： Earth Sciences， 2014， 57（9）： 2036-2044.

Harris R.A.Introduction to special section： Stress triggers， Stress shadows， and implications for seismic hazard［J］.Journal of Geophysics Research， 1998， 103（B10）： 24347-24358.

Ji C.， Hays G.Preliminary Result of the May 12， 2008 MW7.9 Eastern Sichuan， China Earthquake［EB／OL］.2008， http：／／earthquake.usgs.gov／eqcentre／eqinthenews／2008／us2008ryan／finite＿fault.php.

Jia Ke， Zhou Shiyong， Zhuang Jiancang， Jiang Changsheng.Possibility of the Independence between the 2013 Lushan Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake on Longmen Shan Fault， Sichuan， China ［J］.Seismological Research Letters， 2014， 85（1）： 60-67.

King C.P.， Stein R.S.， Lin J.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes ［J］.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America， 1994， 84（3）： 935-953.

Lei Xinglin， Ma Shengli， Su Jinrong， Wang Xiaolong.Inelastic triggering of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake by the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake ［J］.Seismology and Geology， 2013， 35（2）： 411-422 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Liu Boyan， Shi Baoping， Lei Jianshe.Effect of Wenchuan earthquake on probabilities of earthquake occurrence of Lushan and surrounding faults［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica， 2013， 35（5）： 642-651 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Liu Mian， Luo Gang， Wang Hui.The 2013 Lushan earthquake in China tests hazard assessments ［J］.Seismological Research Letters， 2014， 85（1）： 40-43.

Rice J.R.Fault Stress States， Pore Pressure Distributions， and the Weakness of the San Andreas Fault［C］.In：Evans B.， Wong T.F. （Editors）.Fault Mechanics and Transport Properties of Rock ［M］.London：Academic Press，1992.475-503.

Shan Bin， Li Jiahang， Han Libo， Fang Lihua， Yang Song， Jin Bikai， Zheng Yong， Xiong Xiong.Coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by 2010 MS＝7.1 Yushu earthquake and its influence to 2011 MS＝5.2 Nangqên earthquake ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics， 2012， 55（9）： 3028-3042 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Shan Bin， Xiong Xiong， Zheng Yong， Jin Bikai， Liu Chengli， Xie Zujun， Hsu H.Stress changes on major faults caused by 2013 Lushan earthquake and its relationship with 2008 Wenchuan earthquake ［J］.Science China：Earth Sciences， 2013， 56（7）： 1169-1176.

Shao Zhigang， Zhou Longquan， Jiang Changsheng， Ma Hongsheng， Zhang Langping.The impact of Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake on the seismic activity of surrounding faults ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics， 2010， 53（8）： 1784-1795 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Shen Wenhao， Liu Boyan， Shi Baoping.Triggering mechanism of aftershocks triggered by Wenchuan MW7.9 earthquake ［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica， 2013， 35（4）： 461-476 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Song Jin， Jiang Haikun.The static stress triggering influence of the Yushu MS7.1 earthquake ［J］.Earthquake Research in China， 2011， 27（4）： 396-402 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Song Jin， Zhou Longquan.The static stress triggering effects related with the Yutian MS7.3 earthquake ［J］.Earthquake Research in China， 2014， 30（2）： 168-177 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Stein R.S.， King G.C.P，Lin Jian.Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas Fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude＝7.4 Landers earthquake ［J］.Science， 1992， 258（5086）： 1328-1332.

Stein R.S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence ［J］.Nature， 1999， 402（6762）： 605-609.

Toda S.，Stein R.S.， Reasenberg P.A.，Diererich J.H.，Yoshida A.Stress transferred by the 1995 MW ＝6.9 Kobe， Japan， shock： Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities ［J］.Journal of Geophysics Research， 1998， 103（B10）： 24543-24565.

Toda S.， Lin Jian， Meghraoui M.， Stein R.S.12 May 2008 M ＝7.9 Wenchuan， China， earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems ［J］.Geophysical Research Letters，2008， 35（17）： L17305， doi： 10.1029／2008GL034903.

Wan Yongge， Shen Zhengkang， Sheng Shuzhong， Xu Xiaofeng.The mechanical effects of the 2008 MS7.3 Yutian，Xinjiang earthquake on the neighboring faults and its tectonic origin of normal faulting mechanism［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics， 2010， 53（2）： 280-289 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Wang Rongjiang， Lorenzo-Martín F.， Roth F.PSGRN／PSCMP-a new code for calculating co-and post-seismic deformation， geoid and gravity changes based on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory［J］.Computers＆ Geosciences，2006，32（4）：527-541.

Xu Jing， Shao Zhigang， Ma Hongsheng， Zhang Langping.Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 and the 2013 Lushan 7.0 earthquakes along the Longmenshan fault zone on surrounding faults［J］.Earthquake， 2014， 34（4）： 40-49 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Xu Xiwei， Wen Xueze， Han Zhujun， Chen Guihua， Li Chuanyou， Zheng Wenjun， Zhang Shimin， Ren Zhikun，Xu Chong， Tan Xibin， Wei Zhanyu， Wang Mingming， Ren Junjie， He Zhong， Liang Mingjian.Lushan MS7.0 earthquake： A blind reserve-fault event［J］.Chinese Science Bulletin， 2013， 58（28／29）： 3437-3443.

Zhang Yong， Xu Lisheng， Chen Yuntai.Rupture process of the Lushan 4.20 earthquake and preliminary analysis on the disaster-causing mechanism ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics， 2013， 56（4）： 1408-1411 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Zhang Yueqiao， Dong Shuwen， Hou Chuntang， Shi Jusong， Wu Zhonghai， Li Hailong， Sun Ping， Liu Gang， Li Jian.Preliminary study on the seismotectonics of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake， west Sichuan ［J］.Acta Geologica Sinica， 2013， 87（6）： 747-758 （in Chinese with English abstract）.

Zhou Longquan， Ma Hongsheng， Xia Hong， Zhou Junjie， Shao Zhigang.Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2007 MS8.5 and 8.3 Sumatra great earthquakes ［J］.Earthquake， 2008， 28（1）：40-46 （in Chinese with English abstract）.