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Reflecting on the Dilemma of the West

更新时间:2016-07-05

The Chinese hold an entangled cognition,attitude and sentiment about the West,which can even be depicted as a love-hate relationship.Modern Chinese elites go as far as to suggest beating someone at their own game,following a call to surpass England and catch up with the United States not long after the foundation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.China is trying to catch up with and overtake the West on the one hand,and has been in full vigilance against the West on another.Almost ten years has passed since the outbreak of the international financial crisis,during which the West,as represented by Europe and the United States,has been trapped deep in a dilemma never seen in more than seventy years since the end of the World War II.Currently,although the economies of Europe and the United States have seen recovery,fundamental issues remain unsolved as contradictions abound.Others may serve as a mirror for oneself,so does the West for China.An all-round,in-depth,objective and cool-headed understanding of the West is conducive to China’s efforts to develop itself and actively promote global governance so as to make greater contributions to world peace and development.

I

Since the breakout of international financial crisis in 2008,Europe and the United States have been undergoing repeated crises,spreading from economy to social and political domains with almost no areas left unaffected.If we cannot clearly see the actual predicament of the West in the past,the Brexit referendum last year and Trump’s victory in the US presidential election may make most of us aware that something has really gone wrong in the West.The difficulties faced by the West have not only reflected the inherent contradictions within its institutions,but have also revealed profound changes of the times.

A.Various dividends that maintain Western economic superiority are whittling.The West is now particularly anxious,with most of its woes tied to the economy.Europe and the United States have dominated the world for centuries,chiefly based on their economic superiority.The long-term economic superiority of the West has rested on three dividend bases:technology,centrality and the institutions.But these dividends are diminishing,in a trend that has become more prominent since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008.

First,the technological dividend is withering.Technology is the forerunner of the modern world as well as the major support for vigorous advances of capitalism.Every technological innovation from the steam locomotive to electrical power and internet communications has led to earth-shaking economic and social changes,with the West at the vanguard of every change.The West could not have had the productivity that looms over the whole world without its absolute superiority in technology.High productivity means that the West produces material wealth more rapidly than other parts of the world,and that Western capitalists maintain an absolute competitive advantage within the capitalist system.For instance,the rise of the British textile industry once sent fatal shocks to the traditional textile industry the world over.Nonetheless,as the world has modernized,many countries have obtained the latest know-how through attracting investment to implement Western cutting-edge technology as well as mergers and acquisitions of Western technology enterprises.At the forefront of industrial competition,only a few Western countries enjoy an absolute advantage,while most of them are faced with intense competition globally.Take internet finance for example,it was born in Europe,grew up in the United States,and is flourishing in China,resulting in Europe lagging far behind the two internet finance powers of the United States and China.On the eve of the fourth industrial revolution,the West is on the same scratch line with many of the non-Western countries.

Second,the centrality dividend is reducing.The industrial revolution in England,together with political revolutions in France and the United States,has set the basic economic and political tone for the modern world.These industrial and political revolutions have put the West at the center of the world system,greatly widening the gap in development between the West and other parts of the world.From 1750 to 1800,per capita GNP of the so-called developed nations of today was roughly the same as that of the third world.But in the two to three hundred years that followed,the disparity between the two quickly widened.By 1880,per capita GDP in developed doubled that of the third world,and tripled it by 1913,increasing to seven-fold by 1970.1Eric Hobsbawm,The Age of Empire 1875-1914,trans.Jia shiheng(Citic Press Corp.,2014),16.This huge advantage has given the West enough confidence to conquer the world.At the end of the 19th century,such a conquest was mainly expressed in the forms of imperialism and colonialism.Colonies had provided the West with extensive markets and cheap resources.The colonial system collapsed with two world wars in the first half of the 20th century,after which the West enjoyed ongoing benefits brought about by its status as the capitalist center of the world through economic globalization.The status of the West as the center of the world and the benefits produced by such status have been elaborated by the world system theory and dependency theory.1Ref.Immanual Wallerstein,The Modern World Systems(four volumes),trans.Kuo Fang et al.(Social Science Literature Press,2013);Yuan Xingchang,“Dui yifu lilun de zai renshi—yifu lilun de zhuyao zucheng bufen ji jiben sixiang(shang)[Recognition of the Dependency Theory:The major components of the Dependency Theory and their basic ideas(first half)]”,Lading meizhou yanjiu[Latin American Studies],No.5(1990):1-12;Yuan Xingchang,“Dui yifu lilun de zai renshi(xia[second half]),Lading meizhou yanjiu[Latin American Studies],No.No.2(1991):21-30.But with the collective rise of the emerging economies,the center status of the West will be eroded.According to forecasts by OECD,trade among the developed countries in 2012 accounted for 47 percent of the total amount of global trade,while in 2060 it will decline to 25 percent;in contrast,trade among the developing countries will increase from 13 percent to 33 percent.By 2060,the economic aggregates of China and India added together will overtake the sum of OECD member states.2OECD,“50-Year Global Scenario:Policy Challenges,”accessed September 30,2017,http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/policy-challenges-for-the-next-50-years_5jz18gs5fckf-en;http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/lookingto2060.htm#WKP;“Lookingto2060:Long-term Global Growth prospects,”8,http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/2060%20policy%20paper%20FINAL.pdf.

Third,the institutional dividend is being whittled.The system is broken into a domestic one and an international one.At the end of the 19th century,sovereign states,representative systems and citizenship separated the West from the non-Western countries,and were believed to be advanced systems.In the wake of the Second World War,these systems were introduced globally through a gradual process,and have become the standard configuration for modernity.The international systems are also conducive for the West to consolidate its economic superiority.The post Second World War international system was largely formulated by the United States and Europe through“mutual consultation,joint construction and co-sharing”,which not only was an extension of the Western domestic system(e.g.stressing sovereignty),but also safeguarded Western interests as seen in its dealing with the Far East issue,composition of the UN Security Council,and the personnel arrangement of the World Bank and the IMF.Especially after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of East-West confrontation,the West has played an increasingly important role in orchestrating the international system.Nevertheless,such Western domestic system arrangements as democracy and welfare have presently run into difficulties while the international system the West has itself established is changing.With G7 fading away,G20 has made a spectacular debut and the RMB has been accepted into the SDR basket of the IMF.

In the absence of social consensus,political leaders have to go to extremes to carry out their policies.The first extreme is engagement in the so-called illiberal democracy,which is very apparent in Central and Eastern Europe,with Hungary and Poland as typical cases.According to Freedom House(an NGO with headquarters set in Washington)report of 2016,the freedom fallback did not show up as usual in autocracies,but in mature democracies.In 2016,among the freedom fallback countries,European countries accounted for a quarter.1Arch Puddington and Tyler Toylance,“The Freedom House Survey for 2016:The Dual Threat of Populists andAutocrats,”Journal of Democracy,No.2(2017):105.Another extreme is to engage in inferior democracy and abuse of referendums.Brexit is one of these cases.Meanwhile the Greek government repeatedly resorts to referendum as a bargaining chip against international creditors.Referendums either intensified public uncertainty about the policy(as in the case of the UK),or had no effect at all,which only deepened people’s disappointment(as in the case of Greece).To these two extremes,politicians usually adopt populist policies to placate the public through propaganda,which has further divided society.

Second,Western countries have made major adjustment to their foreign policies.On the one hand,the will of the West to interfere abroad is weakening and its value offensive is relaxing.The US has made obvious strategic contraction as seen from President Obama’s returning to Asia to President Trump’s America First.Trump has become the first US president over the past decades who seldom talks about Western values.In EU discourse on international affairs,although democracy and Human Rights stand out as in the past,more emphasis is given to the efforts to foster self-resilience among neighboring countries.In the latest global strategy report of the EU,the word“self-resilience”appeared 34 times,more than“human rights”(30 times)and“democracy”(14 times).3“Shared Vision,Common Action:A Stronger Europe,”accessed September 30,2017,http://eeas.europa.eu/archives/docs/top_stories/pdf/eugs_review_web.pdf.“Self-resilience”should have been used in ecological systems,but the European politicians have seen it as a new governance model,characterized as prospective governance and distant governance,stressing perplexities and uncertainties as well as acknowledging the inability to forecast and prevent threats.The EU,attaching importance to self-resilience,indicated that a great change has taken place to its thoughts on external intervention,inclining toward pragmatism.1Ana E.Juncos,“Resilience as the New EU Foreign Policy Paradigm:A Pragmatist Turn?,”European Security,Vol.26,No.1(2017):1-18.US strategic contraction and European pragmatic diplomacy have reflected the helplessness and powerlessness of the West.On the otherhand,underthe greatpressure ofpopulism,protectionism,exclusionism and isolationism are on the rise in Europe and the United States.After getting into office,Trump halted TPP negotiations with Europe,unilaterally withdrawing the United States from the TPP although it had already been signed,dropping out the Paris Climate Agreement,and preparing for re-negotiation on NAFTA.Although appearing less radical than the United States,the EU has also fallen back from its original position.CETA,between the EU and Canada,almost ran aground because of the obstruction of the Walloon region in Belgium.In 2017,Germany,France and Italy have made great efforts to enhance regulations and legislation at the union level to prevent foreign(mainly concerning China)investment in and acquisition of so-called strategic assets in Europe.2The so-called strategic assets are divided into two kinds:one concerned with important infrastructure such as energy and telecommunications;the other involving critical technology such as AI,robots,semi-conductors,and cyber security.The examination dwells on two aspects:whether the foreign enterprises are controlled by the government and if they receive major capital investment from the government.In July 2017,Germany became the first EU member state to adopt domestic measures to tighten the regulations on acquisition by foreign capital.

Distrust and public opposition toward elites has resulted in failure by ordinary people to reach a consensus on where their nations should go.In June of 2016,the UK held a referendum on whether or not to exit from the EU,whose result was half to half(52 percent voted for exit);while a poll conducted a year after the referendum showed that the ordinary people were divided in their assessment of Brexit(48 percent deemed it harmful to the economy,while 42 percent held it to be good for the economy),indicating the UK as a divided nation.1Jacob Poushter,“British Divided on Brexit Impact as New Elections Loom,”accessed September 30,2017,http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/06/26171800/British-Divided-on-Brexit-Impact-as-New-Elections-Loom-FINAL.pdf.Presently,the British government teeters on an exit from the EU,which in fact is the inevitable outcome of divided public opinion within the country.The US presidential election in November 2016 showed another delicate situation of a divided American society—the Republican candidate Trump won more electoral votes,while the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton won more ballots.In addition to public opposition,fragmentation of public opinion is also a common occurrence.In the German election held in September 2017,Merkel was re-elected Chancellor for the fourth time,but her party CDU only won 33 percent of the votes,8.5 percent less than in the previous election and the lowest since the end of the Second World War.On the contrary,the four-year-old ultra right Populist Party AfD has become the third largest party in a very short-run and has already made its first entry into the Bundestag.Even so,compared with other countries on the European continent,the change of political landscape in Germany is very small.

当直译无法完整表达原文文化内涵时,译者可以在其基础上结合注释加以说明。这样一方面保留了原文的文化内涵,另一方面也能使儿童读者了解更多的外国文化。

B.The Western system is deeply trapped in a democratic dilemma.In history,there have long been people within the West who suspect their systems,but there has never been an occasion when Western democracy has been so generally questioned—not only by elites,but also by the broad masses;not only by the Left,but also by the Right.

With the collapse of consensus on neo-liberalism,Western politics sank in turmoil.Populism takes the opportunity to rise,but fails to propose any substantial alternatives.The no left and no right idea proposed by the newly elected French President and former Socialist Macron has just indicated the perplexity of the West.As Macron is very well aware that the traditional left or right won’t work,he will engage in the no left and no right policy,which is different from the Third Way and the Middle Course proposed by center-left parties,favoring economic policy to the right and social policy to the left.Macron is not very well acquainted with China,but he adores Deng Xiaoping’s Cat Theory—whether a black cat or a white cat,a good cat catches mice,which has shown that Macron is keen on doing things rather than isms.In a sense,Macron is in a similar shoe as the former US President Obama who undertook the hopes of voters for reforms,but got nowhere in his 8 years of reforms.In his five-year presidency,if Macron fails to promote reforms,the ultra right wing will stage a strong comeback in France.

做好孕妇及其家属的沟通交流,告知其检查前的注意事项,签署知情同意书。为其讲解检查相关知识及注意事项,以消除或缓解患者各种负面情绪。孕中期是胎动的高峰,住孕妇及其家属此期尽量不要接受检查,以免胎动影响成像。检查前排尿,减少伪影产生,指导孕妇呼吸,嘱其检查时平稳呼吸。孕周较小的孕妇检查时尽量屏气,以免腹式呼吸影响成像。但也有学者认为,屏气时胎儿宫内缺氧,反而加重胎动。该点目前存疑。

学校里比较老实的学生,经常要受到那些坏同学的袭击和欺负,他们像胆怯的羊羔一样,为了讨好那些品德不端的学生,经常要送一些饭票、香烟之类给这些坏学生,以免遭攻击。我自己也曾这么做过。可我没觉得难为情。因为我觉得人家比我强。我的视力不好。

C.The neo-liberal development model has failed.In the 20 to 30 years prior to the international financial crisis,there had existed consensus in Western society on how a country should develop and how society should be governed,which was summed up as neo-liberalism.In the late 1970s and early 1980s,Prime Minister Thatcher and President Reagan,the central-right party leaders in the UK and the US,proposed the neo-liberal developmentconceptand policy,intending to correctthe illsof Keynesianism and welfare states formed in various countries in the wake of World War II,and instead re-emphasize the market role.The central-left parties in the West were reluctant to accept such neo-liberal polices as expanding privatization and welfare cutbacks at the outset,but later on they gradually got closer to neo-liberalism to win elections and crack the hard nut of stagflation.Later,such central-left leaders as US President Clinton,British Prime Minister Blair,German Chancellor Schroeder and Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero raised administrative ideas such as the Middle Course and the Third Way,proposing a series of measures to reduce government control,increase decentralization and cut down taxes.Just because of this,the British Labor Party leader Blair was called a good student of Mrs.Thatcher.After neo-liberalism went mainstream,the economic growth rate of the West was indeed increased.For 10 years from 1989 to 1999,US GDP grew by an average of approximately 5.5 percent,while that of the Euro zone countries was 5 percent.1OECD Economic Outlook 94 Database,accessed September 30,2017,https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EO94_INTERNET.Scholars who advocated neo-liberalism,such as Hayek and Friedman,became world renowned.Ordinary people gained many benefits from market reforms,as it was much easier to buy foreign goods inexpensively under globalization and pay housing loans under the reformed financial system.The ascendancy of the neo-liberalism brought many people to believe that divisions between the left and the right no longer had significance.

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,the US economy as well as that of many European countries was in recession,with long accumulated defects of neo-liberalism exposed intensively.Although ruling elites wanted to continue with neo-liberalism,society would no longer agree to it.The great gap between the rich and the poor created by neo-liberalism has caught broad attention,as could be seen by ordinary people in the Occupy Wall Street movement shouting“we are the 99 percent”,and the book Capital in the Twenty-First Century by the French Economist Thomas Piketty,caused an earthquake in thinking in the West as the facts of disparity between the rich and the poor became increasingly evident.Besides,economic globalization accompanied by neo-liberalism was severely criticized.As a poll indicated,78 percent of Americans in 2002 believed international trade was a good thing;but by 2007,prior to the outbreak of the international financial crisis,only 59 percent believed so;and in 2008,the percentage dropped further to 53 percent.In investment,57 percent of people in developing countries and 44 percent in emerging economies believed foreign acquisitions of domestic enterprises were good for the economy,while only 28 percent of Americans believed the same.Many people in France,Italy and Japan held similarly pessimistic views.2“Faith and Skepticism about Trade,Foreign Investment,”accessed September 30,2017,http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/09/16/faith-and-skepticism-about-trade-foreign-investment/.

长久以来,由于GB、GJB和HB编制规划渠道的差异,导致一些标准被复制,甚至互不兼容。一些HB晋升为GJB后(HB和GJB之间没有完全替换的关系),显露出标准重叠、交叉、复杂混乱的问题。以铝合金为例,其锻件既有HB又有GJB,而铝合金薄板标准转换为GJB之后,材料尺寸规定的范围太窄,航空材料的截面尺寸规定不完整,导致该标准不能被航空厂采用。

“在这半月里,我才真知道人民革命军真是不行,要干人民革命军那就必得倒霉,他们尽是些‘洋学生’,上马还得用人抬上去。他们嘴里就会狂喊‘退却’。二十八日那夜外面下小雨,我们十个同志正吃饭,饭碗被炸碎了哩!派两个出去寻炸弹的来路。大家来想一想,两个‘洋学生’跑出去,唉!丧气,被敌人追着连帽子都跑丢了,‘学生’们常常给敌人打死。……”

ABA和GA3在生理代谢上是相互联系,均从甲羟戊酸通过光敏色素系统转变而来,一般长日照有利于形成GA3,短日照有利于形成ABA。GA3可以逆转ABA的抑制作用,ABA和GA3对休眠和萌芽可能具有协同和负反馈调节作用。虽然在个别种类激素的作用上存在分歧,目前多数研究结果还是支持植物生长抑制物质与生长促进物质共同作用、决定及调节植物休眠这一理论,即当某种因子相对占优势时,就表现该因子所控制的生理生化变化。

II

It is more important to know the profound consequences of changes in the West than it is to study the changes themselves.The situation change in the West is a new factor of change that has structural impacts on both the international structure and order over the past nearly thirty years following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and collective rise of the emerging economies.

First,the power status and influence of the West is relatively declining,with the grand trend of rising East and declining West becoming a more outstanding international structure.In 2005,prior to the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the GDP of the four traditional major Western powers(the US,the UK,France and Germany)accounted respectively for 27.6 percent,5.3 percent,4.7 percent and 6 percent of the global GDP,which shrunk to 24.2 percent,3.8 percent,3.3 percent and 4.5 percent respectively in 2015.1World Development Indicators Database,accessed September 30,2017,https://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.Meanwhile,the role of emerging major powers as represented by the BRICS has been growing steadily,as the G20 Leaders Summit made its debut in the wake of the international financial crisis and became a major global governance platform.Of late,it has become a major trend to discuss the post-West world in Western strategic circles,which was also a theme for the 2017 annual meeting of the Munich InternationalSecurity Conference,known as the Davos Security Conference.Gone are the days when the developing countries blindly believed in the West,as they now have deep suspicion of the Western systems and productivity.According to the American Pew Center poll,the gap between the United States and China in global popularity is narrowing,bringing the two nations to nearly equal status in 2017,while there are more people in Spain,Mexico,Turkey,Australia,Peru and Senegal favoring China than those favoring the United States.2Margaret Vice,“In Global Popularity Contest,U.S.and China—not Russia—Vie for First,”accessed September 30,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/23/in-global-popularity-contest-u-s-and-china-not-russia-vie-for-first/.

The most outstanding phenomenon is that the broad masses no longer trust the ruling elites,giving rise to extreme populist sentiment.After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,there were two things the Western broad masses could hardly accept:first,they could not accept the fact that the financial elites could create so huge a catastrophe;second,they could not accept that the people who had created such crisis could retreat safe and sound,leaving society to pay the price.Governments had to borrow to bail out banks,while social welfare had to be cut to control the government debts.Ordinary people felt greatly resentful about governments paying for crisis.In 2011,the Occupy Wall Street movement took place in the United States and the Indignados Movement occurred in Spain,as the Western ordinary people echoed the Arab Spring in voicing their opposition against social injustice and the traditional establishment.In the years that followed,extreme populist parties mushroomed in Europe and the United States,with the ordinary people’s distrust of the elites reaching a deep extent,resulting in the Brexit referendum in 2016,Trump’s victory in the US presidential election,and the populist influence on the West climaxing in the post-war era.

Third,the major power relationship is undergoing a new round of massive adjustment.The West is attaching increasing importance to emerging powers,and is increasing precautions against them(especially Russia and China)correspondingly.The US-Russia relationship dropped to a record low for the post Cold War era during the Obama administration.After getting into power,Trump wanted to make some breakthroughs,but met with great domestic resistance.Meanwhile,the two countries have engaged themselves in fierce strategic games in the Middle East as well as in Central and Eastern Europe.The Euro-Russia relationship is in stagnation,due to European sanctions against Russia over the Ukrainian crisis.Although EU member states are not monolithic about relations with Russia,tension between Russia and the EU as whole cannot be swiftly resolved,since the situation in eastern Ukraine is difficult to change fundamentally.Regarding the relationship with China,Obama introduced the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy to cope with China’s fast development,while Trump,after getting into office,has repeatedly threatened to stage a trade war with China.Against the backdrop of a sovereign debt crisis,Europe has attached more importance to China’s market and investment,as apparent from the UK bringing several European countries with it to join the AIIB initiated by China despite of the obstruction from the Obama administration of the United States in 2015.While on the other hand,the EU,obsessed with protectionism,repudiates the protocol on China’s accession to the WTO,actively promoting the introduction of foreign investment screening against China.Another aspect of this new round of adjustment is that the predicament of Europe and the United States has intensified the internal contradictions with the West with the trans-Atlantic relationship changing from one of constancy to one of variability.The European debt crisis and refugee crisis have exacerbated divisions within the EU,with the contradictions between Eastern and Western Europe as well as between Southern and Northern Europe intensifying.Poland and Hungary have confronted the EU openly by refusing to accept refugees,while the UK has decided to exit from the EU through a referendum to reposition itself in the world.

D.Society has lost its sense of security.The normalcy of terrorist attacks everywhere in the West has become a new phenomenon in past years.Since 2015,there have been more than twenty terrorist attacks with relatively great impacts taking place in Europe,involving France,Belgium,Germany,the UK,Spain,Sweden and Finland,as many as 3 to 4 taking place in a single month,with more than 230 people killed in terrorist attacks in France alone.Since November of 2015,France has been in a state of emergency,which means that the police have the power to put terrorist suspects under house arrest without getting consent from the justice department.The EU Commission published the White Paper on the Future of Europe on March 1,2017,with great misgivings“for our residents,Europe has been a free and stable place in a world of disorder and division.Of the 25 countries listed as the most peaceful ones in the world,as many as 15 are from the EU.But the terrorist attacks taking place in recent years have shaken our society.”1European Commission,“White Paper on the Future of Europe,”accessed September 30,2017,https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/white_paper_on_the_future of_europe_en.pdf.European nations are all too unfamiliar with terrorist attacks.In the 1960s and 1970s,separatist groups such as IRA and Eta in Spain as well as extreme political organizations such as the Red Brigades in Italy and the Rote Armee Fraktion in Germany used to be very active.In the wake of 9/11 in 2001,the UK and Spain also experienced serious terrorist attacks.But compared with the past,the current terrorist attacks have assumed new characteristics in their combination of internal and external factors.On the one hand,the extremist organization IS has taken Europe as its major target;on the other hand,most of the terrorist attacks in Europe have been launched in recent years by Muslim immigrants or descendants of immigrants,except a few done by local whites.Most of these immigrants and their descendants,given difficulties merging into local communities or woes from the international financial crisis and the European debt crisis,have been forced into the margins of the society.Meanwhile,the extremist organization IS has taken the opportunity to wantonly incite revenge against the West for its initiation of and involvement in the wars in Afghanistan,Iraq,Libya and Syria.Enchanted by extreme ideology,hundreds of youths from each of the European countries went to Syria and Iraq for jihad,some of whom were designated back to the European countries to stage terror attacks.The major serial terrorist attacks in Paris in November 2015 and the terrorist incident at the Belgium airport in March 2016 were all conducted by returning jihadists.With IS retreating on the battle ground in Syria and Iraq in the second half of 2017,terror attacks in name of IS or by lone wolves are mushrooming,which has made European nations very vulnerable.

Compared with the internal contradictions in Europe,the trend of division between the United States and Europe is more attractive.Lacking a common foe since the end of the Cold War,and with rising competition for economic interests,Europe and the United States began to alienate one another.In recent years,their international visions have been diverging,with cohesion and alliance weakening.In fact,the United States is departing from Europe from Obama’s Asia-Pacific First to Trump’s America First.On international matters,Trump has blindly emphasized America’s own interests,which not only runs contrary to the integration development of the EU on the basis of sovereignty transfer,but also further stimulates populist waves in Europe while giving rise to anti-EU sentiment and suspicion of EU forces,much to the annoyance of Europe.Meanwhile,the United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on climate change and UNESCO,and has threatened to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement,which stands in sharp contrast to positions taken by European countries.From the very beginning of America’s return to Asia,Europe and the United States began to alienate each other in global strategic objectives.On the issue of NATO,although Trump no longer talked about NATO as out-of-date once he got elected,what concerns him most presently is whether the military expenditure of the European member states will meet the 2 percent of GDP benchmark.Tusk,President of the Council of the European Union,expressed his discontent in an open letter to leaders of EU member states,saying that the new US government seemed to question its foreign policy from the past 70 years,and that“changes made by Washington have put the EU in dilemma.”1Zheng Jianghua,“Ouzhoulishihui zhuxi jiang telangpu yanlun liewei waibu weixie[The Chairman of European Council listed Trump’s words as external threats]”,accessed September 20,2017,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-02/01/c_1120397162.htm.After Trump’s first visit to Europe and his attendance at the NATO summit in May 2017,German Chancellor Merkel expressed meaningfully,“gone are the days when we had long relied on others”and“the destiny of the Europeans needs to be in their own hands.”2Erik Kirschbaum,“Merkel Says after Trump visit,”accessed September 20,2017,http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-merkel-europe-united-states-20170528-story.html.In July,in the election manifesto of Merkel’s party,CDU,the positioning of the United States fell from friend to partner.3“U.S.No longer a‘Friend’in Merkel Election Program,”Reuters,July 3,2017.Predictably,the difficulty for the United States and Europe to cooperate in international affairs will increase in the future and Europe will give a bigger role to its autonomy in resolving issues of its own long-term security and development,coping with predicaments in its neighborhood and developing relations with emerging economies including China.At the same time,with changes in the US-Europe relationship,the EU will enhance defense cooperation within the EU with greater political will and seek support from the emerging powers in dealing with regional and global issues.

III

With multi-polarization of the world and economic globalization,in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics,how should we comprehend and cope with the changes in the West?

The Western predicament has proved again and again that internal contradictions of capitalism and the Western democratic system cannot be overcome,though these difficulties will accompany the development of Western countries for a long time.Many people are not optimistic about the prospects of the West,due to this fact.Many researchers in the West will not shy away from mentioning it.Presently,rising populism in the West has certain attractions for ordinary people,as it has discovered the problems of Western countries.Although populists have effectively manipulated these problems in elections and referendums,they cannot save the West by extreme ideas against globalization,European integration and immigration.

当然,如果要体验的新车性格比较外向和运动,外加路线沿途风景变化,我的时差问题可能会困扰少一些。比如前不久在南卡罗莱纳试驾全新BMW X4时,还有在加州1号公路最美路段试驾玛莎拉蒂Levante Trofeo时,我的困意就没那么强烈。怕就怕那种内饰氛围雅致、舒适装备丰富、底盘设定安稳且驾驶辅助系统全面的豪华座驾,催眠效果简直就像助攻时差困扰的一剂褪黑素,咖啡或者功能饮料很容易败下阵来。一旦困劲儿上来,考虑到行车安全,我宁愿先找地方停好车睡一会儿再赶路或者干活。

The current Western dilemma has also proved the correctness of China’s development path,which has been found after more than a hundred years of trial and error.The remarkable achievements China has made over the past decades have greatly improved the lives of the Chinese people and raised China’s international status.China’s road is not only supported by the Chinese people,but also enjoys close attention of the international community.We should stand steadfast in our self-confidence about China’s road,theory,institutions and culture.China’s development has also offered other developing countries of the world a brand-new option to realize modernization.With continuous economic globalization as well as China’s reforms and opening up,economic interdependence between China and the outer world,including the West,has deepened,resulting in a situation of“you are among us and we are among you.”Therefore,we should hold an objective and rational attitude towards the predicament faced by the West and maintain a clear understanding of the challenges China faces in its development.Just as President Xi Jinping pointed out at the opening ceremony of the seminar for the leading officials at provincial and ministerial level in July 2017,“the whole party should firmly grasp the biggest national condition of the primary stage of socialism,firmly rooted in the biggest reality of the primary stage of socialism,and more accurately grasp the changing characteristics of the primary stage of socialism in China.”1“Goaju zhongguo tese shehuizhuyi weida qizhi,wei juesheng quanmian xiaokang shehui shixian zhongguo meng er fendou[Holding high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics;striving for a well-off society in an all round way and realization of the China Dream]”,People’sDaily,July 28,2017.In the report of the 19th National Congress of CPC,Xi Jinping stressed once again,we must recognize that“the evolution of the principal contradiction facing Chinese society does not change our assessment of the present stage of socialism in China.The basic dimension of the Chinese context—that our country is still and will long remain in the primary stage of socialism—has not changed.China’s international status as the world’s largest developing country has not changed.”2“Xi Jinping:woguo shehui zhuyao maodun yijing zhuanhua[Xi Jinping:The principal contradiction facing our society has changed]”,accessed October 19,2017,http://news.xinhuanet.com/video/2017-10/19/c_129722490.htm.Some of the problems confronted by the West,such as division of the rich and the poor,also have some values of warning to China.We should continue with great efforts to promote the structural transformation of domestic economy,cross the middle income trap and ensure sustainable economic growth,while persistently enhancing precise poverty alleviation work,actively boosting balanced regional development,further perfecting social security mechanisms,striving to realize social justice,and making achievements of reform and development that benefit the broad masses.Continuous advancement of these jobs will lay a solid foundation for China to achieve the two centenary goals.

The change of situation in the West has provided not only opportunities but also challenges to China’s domestic development and diplomacy,which also means responsibility and calls China to well grasp the opportunity and actively respond to challenges.The opportunity:with the West fading away,China’s development model and path has become attractive to more and more developing countries,with increasing world demand for Chinese wisdom and Chinese solution,and China’s role gaining more and more attention.This,without any doubt,will be conducive to China’s cooperation with the outer world in the future and China making greatercontribution to world peace,stability and development.The challenge lies in two aspects:first,there has appeared the trend of counter globalization and rising protectionism in the West.Both the EU and the United States are the biggest trade partners with China,with China’s trade with the EU and the United States exceeding US$500 billion.European and American economic policies of protectionism will exert negative impacts on China’s export and overseas investment,ending in more fierce economic competition between China and the West.Second,with the outstanding inward development of the West in international affairs,China is more and more pushed to the international front.In the future,we have to make original and effective proposals on more and more international issues,which has doubtlessly put China’s wisdom,courage and responsibility to test.

Under the new situation,China should make great efforts to promote the continuing development of economic globalization,which is in the interests of China and other developing countries,but also in the interest of the Western developed countries.The future task and responsibility to boost globalization will increasingly fall upon the emerging economies with China included.China should share the achievements of globalization with more countries and peoples through continuously advancing its Belt and Road Initiative.At the same time,China should promote the reform of international financial rules and increase the momentum of its participation in global economic governance under the guidance of the new concept of constructing the community of a shared future for humanity.In order to effectively promote global governance,China should get united with other developing countries,while having consciousness in not only partnership but also competition and struggle with the West.G20 has gathered both emerging economies and the Western countries,while the BRICS Summit represents the strength of emerging powers.These multilateral platforms can offer new stages for China to make more international public goods.

Feng Zhongping
《Contemporary International Relations》2018年第1期文献

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