1 Introduction

In the beginning, the population aging was studied and discussed as an issue of demographic categories. Now, with its degree and scope continuing to expand and intensify, it has become an economic and social issue, and even has evolved into a global concern. The population aging refers to the trend of constant increase in the proportion of elderly population in a country to its total population. According to international practice, when the proportion of elderly population aged 60 or over in a country or region reaches 10% or the proportion of elderly population aged over 65 is up to 7%, it is an aging society. In 2015, the total population of China was 1 374.62 million, and the population aged 65 and over was 143.44 million, accounting for 10.5%, exceeding the prevailing international standard. Besides, with the lapse of time, the degree of population aging in China is still intensifying. The population aging has become a major obstacle to the sustainable development of China’s economy. In particular, the social security system has not fully covered the rural areas. As a result, considering the pension problem, rural residents have strong willingness of deposit but low consumption demand[1]. The rural residents account for 50.31% of the total population, so they are the largest market with the greatest potential. In such context, empirical analysis of the influence of aging trend on the consumption of rural residents and active guidance and expansion of consumption demands of rural residents using high efficient methods will have great significance to promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the national economy.

2 Literature review

2.1 Foreign studies The issue of aging is also a major issue that plagues other countries. Many foreign scholars have studied the population aging at an earlier time. Their ideas are deeper, not limited to the population issue, but extended to labor productivity, deposit, human capital, consumption structure, and endowment security system, and they have made significant achievements[2]. The results can be divided into two categories: (i) there is a significant relationship between population aging and resident consumption; (ii) there is no significant relationship between population aging and resident consumption. Foreign scholars mainly study the influence of population aging from the perspective of deposit rate, the opposite side of deposit rate is the consumption rate. Thus, we analyzed foreign literature mainly from the influence of population aging on the deposit rate.

2.1.1 There is a significant relationship between population aging and resident consumption. Extensive studies show that there is a significant relationship between population aging and resident consumption. Based on the life cycle hypothesis and using the cointegration analysis method, Modigliani etal.[3] carried out an empirical analysis on the relationship between population dependency ratio and deposit rate, and test results indicate that there is a stable correlation between population dependency ratio and deposit rate. Through building an econometric model, Horioka etal.[4] made an empirical study and results show that the aging situation in Japan is significantly correlated with the deposit rate, and the aging situation in Japan can correspond to changes in the deposit rate. Heinrich Hock etal.[5] also verified that the phenomenon of aging due to the decline in birth rate and an increase in life expectancy of the elderly may exert a significant influence on consumption.

In addition, some scholars have studied the correlation between changes in population structure and consumption rate, and obtained the specific positive or negative relationship between changes in population structure and consumption rate. Higgins etal.[6] studied the dependency ratio and deposit rate and found that the increase in the dependency ratio led to a decline in the deposit rate. Lindh T etal.[7] also believed that the old-age dependency ratio is negatively correlated with the deposit rate, and they also measured the degree of influence. Renata Bottazzi etal.[8] found that in countries with a sound social security system and an endowment system, the aging population will promote consumption.

2.1.2 There is no significant relationship between population aging and resident consumption. Some scholars also carried out studies and rejected the significant correlation between population aging and resident consumption. Using the panel data, Kraay[9] studied the relationship between aging and deposit rate in China. The conclusion does not show that China’s dependency ratio is related to the deposit rate. Horioka etal.[4] used the Gaussian mixture model estimation method to study the situation in China, and there was no evidence that the dependency ratio was related to the deposit rate[4].

3.1 Overview of population aging According to international practice, when the proportion of elderly population aged 60 or over in a country or region reaches 10% or the proportion of elderly population aged over 65 is up to 7%, it is an aging society. In short, it means that the age structure of the population is constantly aging, and the proportion of the elderly in the total population is continuously increasing.

(2)内外筒设计细化了污水在气浮罐体内的流动，形成不同的气浮区域，避免出水夹带油滴，降低气浮效果，同时空间利用率更高，结构更为紧凑。

4.1 Model selection and variable description To study the influence of aging population on the consumption of rural residents in China, we selected the relevant time series data from 2001 to 2014. The research data were collected from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics (www.stats.gov.cn) and Office of China National Working Commission on Aging. To ensure the reasonableness of the data, we took the data in 2001 as the base.

2.2.2 Population aging has a significant reverse effect on the resident consumption. Through building the consumption function with the old-age dependency ratio, Huang Mingqing etal.[13] selected the provincial panel data of 2002-2013, and conducted the study by the method of cointegration test and causality test. The results show that aging will lead to the decline in income, accordingly leading to the decrease of resident consumption. Yu Yang etal.[14] stated that the aging will inhibit the consumption. Using the cointegration method and time series data of 1980-2012, Yu Yang etal. concluded that residents have bequeath motivation and will have a negative effect on the consumption, and the old-age dependency ratio will inhibit the rural resident consumption.

2.2.3 There is no significant relationship between population aging and resident consumption. Some scholars believe that there is no correlation between aging and resident consumption. Li Wenxing conducted a study based on the provincial panel data of 1989-2004 and found that aging is not related with consumption[16]. Using the time series data of 1987-2011, Wang Huan etal.[15] carried out empirical test and the results rejected the relationship between the old-age dependency ratio and urban-rural resident consumption[15].

Conclusions of domestic scholars have following drawbacks: (i) failure to introduce factors of aging into the mainstream of classical economic theories and lack of variables of aging, and (ii) no comprehensive consideration of factors, leading to biased conclusions and lack of practical guidance. If we can carry out further in-depth studies, rational use of effective conclusions will have a positive effect on alleviating the issue of aging in China and increasing the consumption of rural residents.

在10月初利雅得举办的未来投资倡议（FII）峰会上，沙特阿美签署了价值超过340亿美元的备忘录和合作协议。这些协议覆盖下游、深水以及工程技术等多个领域，合作对象包括来自中国、美国、日本以及欧洲和中东地区的8个国家的15家能源企业。沙特阿美表示，签署这些协议体现了公司在全球石油石化行业的地位，针对一些战略领域进行投资，有利于优化和扩大公司的业务组合，也将有助于沙特王国推进2030愿景计划。

3 Overview and current situation of population aging in China

2.2 Domestic studies Domestic studies can be basically divided into three categories: (i) the population aging has a positive effect on the resident consumption, (ii) the population aging has a reverse effect on the resident consumption, and (iii) there is no significant relationship between the population aging and the resident consumption.

3.2 Current situation of population aging in China

3.2.1 The elderly population in China is large, and the aging rate is accelerating. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of elderly people aged 60 and over in 2016 reached 230.86 million, accounting for 16.7%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points over the previous year, and the number of people 65 and over was 150.3 million, accounting for 10.8%. Also, judging from the variation tendency of the proportion of the elderly population in China, it present a high-speed rise in recent years, and the aging of China’s population continues to accelerate. According to internationally accepted standard, China Industry Information website estimated that China will enter "aging society" in 2026-2027. There are two main reasons for the aging problem. First, in the modernization process, with the rise of level of medical care, China has gradually shifted from high birth rate, high mortality rate to low birth rate and low mortality rate. In fact, China had completed demographic transition in 2006. The natural population growth rate was 0.53%, which was close to the international standard of 0.5%. Second, the strict family planning policy was implemented for a long time, leading to the arrival of an aging society ahead of time. With the development of economy and society, China will inevitably enter an aging society. However, over 30 years of family planning policy has accelerated the aging process[17]. Even though the fully unbanning of two-child policy is currently in place, the lower birth rate still cannot alleviate the severe aging of the population.

3.2.2 The elderly population is unevenly distributed and the aging presents shifting trend. China has a large population base. In 2013, the elderly people aged 60 and above exceeded 200 million, and in 2016 it reached 229 million. The distribution and development of population aging are uneven in different regions. According to the data issued by the Office of China National Working Commission on Aging, among the 34 provincial-level administrative units in China in 2014, the elderly aged 60 and over exceeded 17% in Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui, which are mainly distributed in central and eastern regions. It can be seen that the current population aging in China is reflected in two aspects: (i) from the perspective of the regional distribution of the aging population, the aging situation of central and eastern regions is serious, while the pressure of western region is small; (ii) the population aging presents the trend of shifting from western and central regions to eastern regions[18].

“2017年广东海事局开展了三大战役，分别是水上交通安全大巡察、防范船碰桥、共建‘平安西江’行动，其中‘平安西江’行动历时3年，力争成为海事部门水上安全监管的品牌效应。”吴建生介绍，随着共建“平安西江”行动的持续推进，海事部门的影响力越来越大，以往海事部门单打独斗，很少与属地政府管理部门打交道，双方无法做到信息共享，资源共享。

3.2.3 The problem of "not getting rich before getting old" appears, and the pressure of economic development continues to increase. Looking at the history of economic development and demographic structure in developed countries, almost all countries follow the trend of "getting rich → aging → solving the problem of aging". In 2001, the population of the elderly aged 65 or over accounted for 7.1%, becoming a globally recognized country with an aging population. However, at this time, the accumulation of social material wealth was obviously insufficient. The per capita GDP was only 1 041.6 USD, which was difficult to bear the pension of the elderly. In recent two decades, with the rapid development of China’s national economy, the per capita GDP has increased substantially, reaching 8 113 USD in 2016. However, compared with developed countries, the gap is still large. Due to the RMB devaluation, for the first time in two decades, China becomes lagged behind the United States in dollar-denominated GDP growth. As China’s population aging process is intensifying, the population of working age (16 to 60 years old) has declined, the "demographic dividend period" has come to an end, the national economic development has slowed down, and the pressure has continued to increase.

Ln(Cont) = α1 + α2Ln(REVt) + α3Ln(Rut) + α4CDRt + α5ODRt + α6Ln(Cont-1) + εt

4 Empirical analysis of the influence of rural aging on resident consumption

2.2.1 Population aging has a significant effect on the resident consumption. Based on the intertemporal optimal consumption theory, Wang Yupeng concluded that there is a significant positive correlation between old-age dependency and the average consumption propensity[10]. Besides, the actual disposable income and current price will influence the consumption. The study of the relationship between the aging and consumption of rural residents by Tan Jiangrong etal.[11] added the factor of population flow, the study applied the provincial panel data of population census and population sampling surveys, and results indicate that the old-age dependency ratio will promote the consumption of rural residents. Liu Xiaoyan divided the research object into the eastern region and the western region, and studied the relationship between the population age structure and the resident consumption, built a theoretical model of population aging and consumption, and used GMM model to obtain empirical results[12]. The results show that in the eastern region, the increase in the old-age dependency ratio promotes the per capita consumption expenditure of residents, and there is no correlation between them in the western region.

We selected variables including the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents (Con), per capita net income of rural residents (Rev), urban-rural income gap (RU), children dependency ratio (CDR), and old-age dependency ratio (ODR). To ensure the accuracy and validity of the empirical results, we processed three variables (Con, Rev, and RU) in logarithm, namely, Ln(Con), Ln(Rev), and Ln(RU) to eliminate possible heteroscedasticity.

(ii) Setting of the explanatory variables. The old-age dependency ratio (ODR): for the measurement of population aging, we use the old-age dependency ratio of the population, which refers to the ratio of the population aged over 65 to the population aged 15-64. The old-age dependency ratio reflects the working-age population bears non-working-age population. Many scholars take the old-age dependency ratio as the proxy variable for population aging. Therefore, we also took the old-age dependency ratio as an explanatory variable.

(i) Setting of the explained variables. The per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents (Con): for the measurement of resident consumption, scholars have proposed different measures. Li Wenxing[16] adopted the consumption rate to measure the consumption level of resident in the study of the relationship between population structure and consumption. Wang Yupeng[10] used the average consumption propensity. Some scholars used the total consumption amount, the per capita consumption growth rate, per capita consumption expenditure, and deposit rate. Based on the availability of data and the fact that the per capita consumption level can directly reflect the total consumption level of residents, we selected the per capita consumption expenditure of residents as the proxy variable.

The children dependency ratio (CDR) refers to the ratio of children population to the working-age population.

（2）洞脸部位锚杆锁口。在结束洞口开挖作业后，需要随即进行素喷混凝土作业，当厚度达到5cm后,应展开锚杆锁口处理。基于洞口部位的不同，需要用不同的方式。对于洞顶区域而言，锁口锚杆只需布设一排，而侧面区域则需有所改变，应再增设一排，两排之间保持0.5m距离。锚杆使用的是规格为Φ20mm的螺纹钢，入岩深度为5m。

(iii) Setting of control variables. The urban-rural income gap (RU) refers to the gap between urban and rural income. According to Keynes’s absolute income hypothesis, people with higher income will have lower average consumption propensity, while people with lower income will have higher average consumption propensity, so the imbalance in income is an important factor affecting the consumption level. Therefore, we took the urban-rural income gap as a control variable in the model.

The per capita net income of rural residents (Rev): according to Keynes’s consumption theory, consumption is positively correlated with income; the higher the income, the higher the consumption level. Therefore, we incorporated the average deposit balance into the influencing factors of the level of resident consumption.

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4.2 Establishment of empirical model

张国斌副厅长就政协提案办理率队上门征求农工党省委会意见（省厅耕保处等） ...........................................8-4

3.2.4 Disabled and "empty nest" elderly people increase and aging of the rural population is worrying. The population aging directly leads to the problem of social pension, and the number of empty nest families in China is increasing year by year. According to the report on the social system reform, by the end of 2016, China’s elderly population aged 60 and over reached 230 million, accounting for 16.7% of the total population, among which disabled and partially disabled elderly people were about 40 million, accounting for 18.3% of the elderly population, and empty nest elderly accounted for 51.3% of the elderly population, showing an accelerated trend of empty nesting and living alone. According to the data issued by the Office of China National Working Commission on Aging, by 2020, the number of disabled elderly in China will reach 42 million, and the elderly aged over 80 will reach 29 million. In addition, the aging population of urban areas in developed countries is often higher than in rural areas, while the situation in China is the opposite. In China, the mobility of rural population is high, young and middle-aged people are forced to come to work in the cities for their livelihood, which further exacerbates the aging process of the rural population. The increasing empty nesters are often plagued by diseases, mental loneliness and other factors, and their living conditions are not satisfactory, which increases the social instability.

浇水时掌握五浇五不浇，即晴天浇水，阴天不浇水；上午浇水，下午不浇水；浇温水，不浇冷水；膜下浇暗水，不浇明水；要浇轻水，不浇大水，并注意浇水后放风排湿。

天南星妖也自掌中幻出三个紫色光球，光球奇大如斗，拖着紫色尾芒流星般撞向我的飞剑。随着“轰轰轰”三声响，光球爆裂开来，莹莹光芒灼人眼目。

where Ln(Cont) is explained variable, Ln(REVt) and Ln(Rut) are control variables, CDRt and ODRt are explanatory variables, εt is the stochastic disturbance term, t denotes the current data, and (t-1) is the data with one lag period.

4.4.1 ADF unit root test. All variables selected in this study were time series data. To ensure the reasonableness of empirical results, we adopted ADF unit root test to test the data stationarity. If the time series has a stationarity, it means that there is a cointegration relationship among the variables; otherwise, a "spurious regression" phenomenon may occur, resulting in invalid empirical results. The test results are shown in Table 2. The time series Ln(Con), Ln(Rev), Ln(RU), CDR, and ODR are non-stationary. After the first-order difference, the original time series is stable at the 5% confidence level, which is a first order integration I(1).

Table 1 Indicators related to population aging and consumption in 2001-2014

YearPercapitaconsumptionexpenditureofruralresidents(Con)∥yuanPercapitanetincomeofruralresidents(Rev)∥yuanUrban⁃ruralincomegap(RU)∥yuanChildrendependencyratio(CDR)∥%Old⁃agedependencyratio(ODR)∥%20011741．12366．44493．232．010．120021834．32475．65227．231．910．420031943．32622．25850．031．410．720042184．72936．46485．230．310．720052555．43254．97238．128．110．720062829．03587．08172．527．311．020073223．94140．49645．426．811．120083660．74760．611020．226．011．320093993．55153．212021．525．311．620104381．85919．013190．422．311．920115221．26977．314832．522．112．320125908．07916．616648．122．212．720137485．28895．918059．222．213．120148382．69892．019489．022．513．7

Note: data were selected from ChinaStatisticalYearbook.

4.4 Empirical results and analyses

4.3 Data source We selected the relevant time series data from 2001 to 2014. The research data were collected from ChinaStatisticalYearbook and ChinaPopulationStatisticalYearbook issued by the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics (www.stats.gov.cn) and Office of China National Working Commission on Aging, and some data were accurately calculated and converted according to demands. To ensure the reasonableness of the data, we took the data in 2001 as the base. We selected variables including the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents (Con), per capita net income of rural residents (Rev), urban-rural income gap (RU), children dependency ratio (CDR), and old-age dependency ratio (ODR).

Table 2 ADF test of variable logarithmic sequence

Variable(C，T，K)ADFtestvalueCriticalvalueat5%confidencelevelStationarityLn(Con)(C，T，0)-1．384-3．115Non⁃stationaryDLn(Con)(C，T，1)-3．147-3．421StationaryLn(Rev)(C，T，0)-1．479-3．115Non⁃stationaryDLn(Rev)(C，T，2)-3．125-3．426StationaryLn(RU)(C，T，0)-1．714-3．115Non⁃stationaryDLn(RU)(C，T，2)-4．432-3．426StationaryCDR(C，T，0)-2．641-3．115Non⁃stationaryD(CDR)(C，T，1)-4．982-3．421StationaryODR(C，T，0)-1．736-3．115Non⁃stationaryD(ODR)(C，T，1)-3．857-3．421Stationary

Note: (C, T, K) denotes (constant term, trend, and lag order), and D signifies the first order difference of variables.

4.4.2 Cointegration test. According to the ADF unit root test, the variables are all first-order integration, that is, cointegration test can be performed. For cointegration test, that is, there is a stable relationship between variables, and the changes between each other are subject to this stable relationship. In this study, we used Johansen maximum likelihood method to conduct the cointegration test (Table 3). According to Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the trace test statistic is as small as possible. The test result shows that the first order lag value is the smallest, that is, the order of autoregression is first order. At the same time, assuming that the number of cointegration equations is three, the original hypothesis is accepted at the 1% confidence level. This indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among several variables and the regression estimation can be made.

4.4.3 Granger causality test. Through the Johansen cointegration test, it can be found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. We tested the Granger causality between CDR and ODR and Con, as listed in Table 4. The results show that CDR and ORD are the Granger causality of Ln(Con), which is consistent with the cointegration test conclusion. Ln(Con) is not the Granger causality of CDR and ORD, which is consistent with the theory. According to the demographic theory, the dependency ratio has nothing to do with the level of economic development and consumption willingness, but is correlated with the age structure of the population.

Table 3 Results of Johansen cointegration test

NumberofassumedcointegrationequationTraceteststatisticCriticalvalueat5%confidencelevelEigenvalue01032．130995．49-198．678167．841．0000253．451645．260．8016329．672430．840．5376410．983716．340．435250．04363．950．3253

Table 4 Results of Granger test

NullHypothesisF⁃StatisticProbConclusionLn(Cont)doesnotGrangercauseCDRt0．45920．3257OriginalhypothesisacceptedLn(Cont)doesnotGrangercauseODRt0．38290．6834OriginalhypothesisacceptedCDRtdoesnotGrangercauseLn(Cont)4．38720．0217OriginalhypothesisrejectedODRtdoesnotGrangercauseLn(Cont)5．47380．0204Originalhypothesisrejected

4.4.4 Regression estimation. Through the model established above, the regression estimation of the variables is listed in Table 5, and the linear regression model obtained is as follows:

其五，目的性。目的是指人们在从事活动时所要达到的目标和实效。中共十八届三中全会提出，全面深化改革的总目标，是完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。从这一总目标出发，创新社会治理的目的性要求，是打造共建共治的社会治理新格局，推进社会治理现代化。相对于以往的社会管理模式，从共建到共治是一个在国家治理总目标下的社会治理结构创新和系统重构问题，其中创新重在改进社会治理体制，重构重在不断完善党的领导、政府主导、社会协同、公众参与、法治保障的社会治理体系，通过目标和体制创新与实践模式创新的结合，不断提高社会治理的科学化和现代化水平。

此一现象，值得深思。李强的《“滕子京谪守巴陵郡”的背后》一文，也对范仲淹等庆历新政人物做过理性审视，文章认为范仲淹对滕子京的辩护更多出于对其人格的认同，而这样的人格认同很大程度与二人间的私人关系有关，文章认为：

Ln(Cont) = 0.802 8 Ln(REVt) + 0.059 3 Ln(Rut) - 0.003 7 CDRt - 0.032 7 ODRt + 0.102 7 Ln(Cont-1) + 0.674 6

Table 5 Results of regression estimation

VariableCoefficientStd．Errort⁃StatisticLn(REVt)0．8028∗∗∗0．10427．690Ln(Cont-1)0．10270．10420．930Ln(Rut)0．0593∗∗0．04361．590CDRt-0．0037∗0．0029-1．850ODRt-0．0327∗∗∗0．0159-3．943Constantterm(C)0．67460．21632．793R2=0．9843 R2adj=0．9831 DW=1．1736

Note: ***, **, and * denote significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% level.

From the results of model regression estimation, the explanatory power of the model is very high. R2 and R2adj reach 0.984 3 and 0.983 1, respectively, and the two are relatively close. The per capita net income of rural residents (Rev) is positively correlated with the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents (Con) at 1% confidence level. In other words, when Rev increases by 1%, Con will increase 0.802 8 percentage points, indicating that the income is the main factor affecting the consumption of rural residents. By increasing the income level of rural residents, it can stimulate consumption. The consumption of rural residents with one lag period is positively correlated with the current consumption, but it is not significant, indicating that the inertia effect of consumption among rural residents is not obvious. RU is positively correlated with Con at 5% confidence level. Specifically, when RU increases by 1%, Con will increase 0.059 3 percentage points, indicating that with the acceleration of urbanization in China, the consumption habits of urban residents are affecting more and more rural residents. In particular, large numbers of rural migrant workers have flooded into cities, and they have gradually approached urban residents in terms of living and consumption habits. Under the background of population aging, the CDR and ODR will be the focus of research on consumption of rural residents. The regression results showed that the CDR and ODR are negatively correlated with Con, indicating that the decline in CDR promotes increase in the consumption willingness of rural residents, while the increase in ODR will inhibit the consumption willingness of rural residents.

5 Empirical conclusions and policy recommendations for promoting the improvement of consumption ability of rural residents

5.1 Conclusions Through the empirical study of the time series data from 2001 to 2014, we reached the conclusion that there is a linear relationship between the variables. Especially, CDR and ODR have a significant effect on Con. Combined with China’s national conditions, we further analyzed this conclusion. (i) China has implemented the family planning policy for more than 30 years, resulting in a large number of single-child families. Parents in rural areas have high expectation for their only child, and invest heavily in education, which has stimulated consumption. At the same time, about 56.3% of rural areas in China implement the "one and half child policy", in which when the first child is a girl, it is allowed to have a second child. This policy leads to the fact that the child dependency ratio of rural residents is correlated with the per capita consumption at 10% confidence level. (ii) China’s social security system is not perfect, and rural residents have a strong willingness of deposit, in order to make preparation for future retirement and medical care. In addition, industrious and thrifty in managing a household are consumption habits of Chinese people since ancient items, so it is difficult to change the consumption structure of rural residents in a short term.

5.2 Policy recommendations for promoting the improvement of consumption ability of rural residents The aging of the rural population will directly or indirectly lead to a series of potential problems in social and economic development. Failure to deal with it will trigger a severe economic crisis. However, if it is successful, it can alleviate the problem of population aging and help increase the general living standards of the rural residents, and is favorable for the economic growth. However, it should be noted that the population aging in China is different from other countries and has its own distinct characteristics. Therefore, it is necessary to seriously study and discuss the issue, especially the specific rural population aging. According to the actual situation, we came up with following practical and feasible recommendations.

5.2.1 Effectively raising the income level and improving the consumption ability of rural residents. Income determines consumption. The consumption idea of "living within one’s income" is deeply rooted in the mind of rural residents, so their consumption expenditure is mainly affected by the current income. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively improve the consumption ability through increasing the disposable income of rural residents. Rural residents seldom carry out credit consumption. In addition to being influenced by consumption habits and thrift awareness, uncertain factors of expected income also, to a certain extent, impede the consumption enthusiasm of rural residents. The main reason is that financial institutions take risks into consideration and it is difficult for rural residents to obtain long-term credit support[19]. We can take following measures to practically raise the income level of rural residents. (i) Improving the social income distribution system. It is recommended to establish the principle of income distribution based on contribution of labor, capital, technology, and management, and increase the proportion of rural residents in social income distribution. (ii) Accelerating the introduction of science and technology to rural areas, improving the cultivation techniques of rural residents, increasing income, and increasing the income from crops and agricultural products. It is recommended to strengthen the employment skills training for rural residents, expand non-agricultural employment, and encourage surplus labor to enter urban areas. In particular, in the process of accelerating urbanization, it is recommended to encourage rural residents to participate in urban construction through market mechanisms and obtain wage income. (iii) Establishing the rural information cooperatives to accelerate the process of rural informatization construction, achieve the connection between agricultural products and the market, and protect the production income of rural residents. (iv) Introducing the competition mechanisms in commercial banks to accelerate the rural credit development. Commercial banks should appropriately simplify the procedures for loan of rural residents, make innovation in credit type while ensuring the safety of funds, and help and support farmers to expand their reproduction and create greater revenue space.

5.2.2 Establishing and improving the social security system and deepening the reform of the endowment insurance system. In the short term, it is recommended to change the traditional thinking model of "first deposit and then consumption" in rural areas, and establish a sound social security system, maximize the effectiveness of policies, and correctly guide reasonable and moderate consumption. (i) It is recommended to integrate the rural social undertakings through taking medical care, education, and culture as breakthroughs. Through solving the problem of education of children of migrant workers in cities, raising the "Three Guarantees" standard for rural students, and raising the educational level of rural students, it is expected to lay a foundation for increasing income of rural residents, and alleviate the consumption pressure of rural education in children education[20]. Especially, it is required to pay attention to left-behind children, and provide certain preferential policies and fee reductions. It is recommended to build a multi-level medical security system, vigorously promote new rural cooperative medical care, and gradually realize full coverage of medical insurance in rural areas, so that rural residents can be treated as soon as get disease. (ii) It is recommended to take minimum guarantees, old-age insurance, and five guarantees as the starting points to effectively solve the old-age problem of rural residents, achieve the goal of being looked after properly in the old age, to eliminate the worry of rural residents. It is recommended to accelerate the trial of new rural endowment insurance, improve the minimum living security system in rural areas, and provide the minimum living security for elderly people without family and poor residents. (iii) It is recommended to encourage the entrance of private capital and charitable organizations, speed up the construction and reconstruction of a group of rural nursing homes, and consciously tilt the system toward poor old people. Besides, it is recommended to encourage commercial capital to set up enterprises in rural areas according to local conditions, provide jobs for young and middle-aged people, combine family endowment with community endowment, and reduce the number of "empty nest" elderly people.

当Y>Y*时,dx1/dt>0,dx2/dt<0,x1=0,x2=1为两个稳定状态，则x2=1是演化稳定策略，开发商建设普通建筑的概率为1，也就是说，政府激励对策成效不佳，开发商不愿意投资建设被动房，并且原先开发建设被动房的开发商转变为开发建设普通建筑。

5.2.3 Enhancing the policy support to open up the consumption market for the elderly. The provinces should formulate policies favorable for expanding rural consumption in accordance with actual situations, and care about and activate the rural consumption market. (i) Combining the characteristics of rural resident consumption, it is recommended to continue to promote the activity of "home appliances going to the countryside", gradually expand the product field, especially mechanical equipment related to production of rural residents, such as tractor and harvester. It is recommended to provide affordable products and excellent after-sales services, to satisfy demands of rural residents and effectively activate purchasing power. It is recommended to encourage the bid winners to go deep into rural areas, provide installation and dispatching services, and fulfill the service commitments, and provide professional and sophisticated services. (ii) Encouraging industrial and commercial enterprises to increase their research in the rural market and research and develop products suitable for the demands of rural residents. The income of rural residents is limited, which determines that their demands for products are based on high quality, low price, and practicality. In addition, in packaging design, it is also required to adapt to rural traffic conditions. (iii) Encouraging a variety of investment entities to enter rural commodity circulation to prosper the rural economy. It is recommended to integrate the power of rural supply and marketing cooperatives to promote the convenient consumption of rural residents. (iv) Exploiting the consumption market of the elderly. It is recommended to care about the development of consumption products for the elderly and expand the consumption demands of the elderly in rural areas. Under the background of increasing rural population aging, it is recommended to care about developing products and services for the elderly, open up the old-age industry, also known as the silver-haired industry, including the entertainment, education, tourism, commodities, and welfare facilities for the elderly. The deepening of the population aging will accelerate the development of related industries and the adjustment of industrial structure. Especially, at present, there is a big gap in the professional nursing personnel for the elderly. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the training and provide professional and sophisticated care for the elderly in the future community.

6 Discussions

The population aging is an inevitable problem in the entire world. However, due to China’s special national conditions and development, China will face the problem of rapid and large scale population aging. From an objective point of view, the issue of rural population aging will have a profound impact on the consumption of rural residents and on China’s economic development. It will bring great advantages and opportunities as well as many challenges and problems. Therefore, we should not only pay attention to the immediate conflicts of interest, but take a long-term perspective to look at the issue of population aging and guide the rational development of the issue so as to raise the consumption level of rural residents and exert a positive effect on economic development. This study is based on objective national conditions and relevant data analysis. Before the advent of the peak period of population aging, it is required to take the opportunity and time to develop the economy, practically raise the income level of rural residents, establish and improve the social security system, strengthen the policy support and activate the rural consumption market, so as to keep high level consumption level and stable and rapid economic growth before the advent of the severe population aging period.

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