(No.2.2018)

Contents

Regional Studies

3 The Changing Situation in the Middle East from the Perspective of the Dual Order: Its Nature and Trends

Abstract: Since modern times, the Westphalian order has expanded to the world with the colonial expansion of European countries. The Middle East region is adjacent to Europe and has been hit hardest by the Westphalian order. The Westphalian Order emphasizes the concepts of secular political communities such as sovereignty over its territory and state sovereignty, while the Islamic order existed for more than a thousand year in the Middle East regards the Ummah, the Muslim community that integrates politics and religion, as the concept of the Islamic political community. The concept does not recognize the geographical borders of the nation and the state and therefore has been colliding with the Westphalian order fiercely. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Islamic order in the Middle East collapsed with the abolition of the caliph regime, and the Westphalian Order replaced it and dominated the order of the Middle East region. However, as the Islamic culture is deeply rooted in Middle East society, the Middle East region’s identification with the Islamic order has been latentand has manifested as many resistances of pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism. The change in the Middle East that began in late 2010 was to a certain extent a major outbreak in the Middle East under the dual tension of the Westphalian order and the Islamic order. It was another wave of resistance of the Middle East countries striving to reshape the regional new order during a transition period of the international system. This wave of socio-political changes originally motivated by the demand for democratization has gradually evolved into a struggle for the domination over the reconfiguration of the regional order due to the struggle for the religious dominance,the struggle for secular dominance, and the components of foreign interventions. In a considerable period of time in the future, the Middle East region under the tension of the dual order will continue to be in a state of chaos in which transition and turbulence coexists, until its internal order, which has forcibly destroyed by Western forces since modern times, will be rebuilt.

Keywords: Westphalian order, Islamic order, changing situation in the Middle East, nature, trend

About the Author: Luo Ailing is Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

Luo Ailing

27 The Political, Economic and Diplomatic Challenges Facing Syria’s Reconstruction

Abstract: This article attempts to understand the current situation in Syria from the perspective of historical process by comparing the political, economic, and diplomatic differences in Syria before and after 2011, when the Syria civil war broke out. Based on this, it analyzes and predicts Syria’s process of political reconstruction and its challenges in the future. Politically, the seven years’ civil war have caused Syrian’s traditional authoritarian regime with a military-centered political system to be severely damaged, and the “centralized” political structure has been replaced by the political reality of the “decentralization” by armed separatists. Economically, Syria’s domestic economic situation is deteriorating further, the development model of diversified economy strived to promote by Bashar to after he took power has also been sluggish due to the war.In terms of its external relations, the civil war over the years has weakened Syria’s external influence, and Syria has also downgraded from a “regional power” to an object influenced or even manipulated by regional and extraterritorial powers. These new changes are the realistic basis for Syria’s post-war reconstruction and will also determine the general direction of future Syria’s internal affairs and diplomacy.

Keywords: Syria, political reconstruction, Syria Civil War, Syria Peace process

About the Author: Wang Jin is a PhD Candidate at the School of Political Science, University of Haifa, Israel.

Wang Jin

46 A Study on the Participation of Private Voluntary Organizations in US Policy for Foreign Aid from the Perspective of Policy Process ——The Case of CARE USA

Abstract: As a private voluntary organization registered with the United States Agency for International Development, CARE not only provides foreign aid services, but also employs various strategies to influence the decision-making process of the US government’s foreign aid policy. This paper uses a theory of policy process to analyze the US CARE’s influences on the U.S.government’s policy for foreign aid as an advocate, information provider, project implementer, accountability demander, and supervisorin the processes of the policy agenda setting, policy formulation, policy implementation, and policy evaluation in terms of the policy of foreign aid. Taking an overview of the decision process of the U.S. government’s foreign aid policy, CARE’s influence on policy has infiltrated into the decision-making of foreign aid. However, due to the two-sided nature of the U.S. government’s foreign aid policy, CARE’s direct influence on the foreign aid policy agenda setting, policy formulation, policy implementation, and policy evaluation is limited.

Keywords: policy for foreign aid, CARE USA, private voluntary organization, theories of the policy process

About the Author: Sang Ying is Lecturer at the Institute of Politics and Law, Taiyuan University of Technology.

Sang Ying

China’s Diplomacy

58 An Analysis of the Practice of China’s Bilateral Investment Agreements and the Strategic Position of the New Generation of Bilateral Investment Agreements

Abstract: As a major instrument for managing investment relations among countries with different levels of economic development, bilateral investment agreements(BITs) are considered to be the most important and effective way to protect foreign investors. When China put BITs into practice in the 1980s, the scale of its outbound investment was very limited and there was no strong need for China to protect its overseas investment. After making a comprehensive analysis of the system of bilateral investment agreements between China and foreign countries, this paper believes that the BITs are used as an instrument of international law practice in line with the evolution of China’s foreign investment policy. It was mainly used in the early stages to show the international community that China has begun to integrate into the world economy to attract foreign investors, follow the forerunners of the rules, and promote the image of a “responsible power”. As China has further integrated into the global economy, the pace of “going out” has accelerated, and China’s practice of BITs has begun to focus on protecting its overseas investment and promoting to establish a new system of an open economy. However, as far as the practical effect is concerned, the current bilateral investment agreements between China and foreign countries lags behind the change in China’s status within the world’s investment configuration, and it needs to be improved in terms of protecting investors and ensuring the rights of public management of host countries. China’s new generation of BITs should be based on China’s dual status both as a capital importing and capital exporting powerhouse, serving China’s reform goals and practical needs.

Keywords: bilateral investment treaty, practice motivation,practical effect, strategic position

About the Author: Ke Jing is Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

Ke Jing

79 An Analysis of China’s Decision Making Mechanisms and Processes for Diplomatic Crises——A Case Study of the Bombing of the Chinese Embassy in 1999

Abstract: The incident of bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia by the US fighter planes in 1999 is the climax of the bilateral crisis between China and the United States after the Cold War. The sudden outbreak of the incident greatly exceeded the expectation of the policy makers of the two countries and the bilateral relations faced a severe test, making the incident a typical case of the Sino-U.S. bilateral crisis after the Cold War. The policy makers in both countries accumulated useful experience of crisis decision-making in this incident as well. As the victim of this crisis, the crisis situation faced by China was more serious than that of the United States, and its decision-making process was even more arduous and complicated. This article uses the decision-making theory of diplomatic crisis to analyze China’s decision-making mechanisms,processes, and objectives, as well as other integrated parts such as the consideration of various alternatives, in the incident of the Bombing of the Chinese Embassy in order to deepen the understanding and the insights of the Chinese crisis decision-making process in this incident and,therefore, summarize China’s relevant principles and spirit in its decision-making process of the diplomatic crisis for providing an empirical interpretation and some lessons for China’s future crisis decision-making and crisis management.

Keywords: Incident of the Bombing of the Chinese Embassy, crisis decision-making, decision-making mechanisms and processes, Sino-U.S. relations

About the Authors: Liu Chang is a doctoral student of Class 2014 at the Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University and another Liu Chang is Assistant Research Fellow at Department for Developing Countries Studies, China Institute of International Studies.

Liu Chang Liu Chang

109 The Power Transition Theory and Sino-U.S. Relations

Abstract: Since the end of the Cold War, the unbalanced economic growth between China and the United States, the continuous rise of China’s overall national strength and international status, and the relative decline of the overall strength of the United States have shown that the long process of power transfer between China and the United States has begun, making the power transfer theory widely used in academic research on Sino-US relations. With reference to China’s history and culture, consistent diplomatic strategy, and China’s participation in international organizations and its compliance with global norms, we can see that as a growing and conservative rising country, China has always been a responsible participant and builder in the international system, with no intention of dominating the world. With the increase in the fields of cooperation between China and the United States in recent years and the deepened degree of their cooperation, the two countries can maintain a relatively stable model of benign competition, making it possible to transfer power between China and the United States in a peaceful manner.

Keywords: power transfer, Sino-US relations, process, possibility

About the Author: Yu Zhenyan is a doctoral candidate at the School of Politics and International Studies, Central China Normal University.

Yu Zhenyan

Global Governance

123 The United Nations, the African Union, and China: A Peace Partnership for Cooperation Based on the African Peace and Security Architecture

Abstract: Both global and regional security governance require multiple actors such as the United Nations, regional organizations, and global powers to play an active role together. In terms of the security governance in Africa, the cooperation on peace and security between the United Nations, the African Union and China has an important significance in practice. It is not only a complement of the comparative advantages of all parties, but also conducive to solving the problems of regional security as well as promoting the establishment of a system of global governance for security. The establishment of a framework for peace and security in Africa, and the full operation of the Peace and Security Council, the Early Continental Warning System, the Panel of the Wise, the African Standby Force and the Peace Fundin particular, provide opportunities for the cooperation between the United Nations, the African Union and China. There is already a certain degree of cooperation between these parties. The political will of all parties should continue to be increased, and more resources to be raised with an effective distribution and management, however, in order to further enhance the peace and secure partnership between the United Nations, the African Union and China on the basis of the cooperation on the African Peace and Security Architecture, while the existing mechanisms for cooperation among all parties must be improved and optimized. China should play a positive role in communication and coordination between the United Nations and the African Union, providing more public goods of security within its capabilities.

Keywords: the United Nations,the African Union, China, partnership for peace and security,the African Peace and Security Architecture

About the Author: Cheng Zilong is a doctoral student majoring in international relations at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University.

Cheng Zilong

137 Global Climate Governance under the Framework of Sino-American Joint Leadership: Origin, Deadlock and Recasting

Abstract: In the context in which it is difficult to make much needed breakthroughs in multilateral climate governance, a joint leadership of major powers is crucial to break such a deadlock, and the capabilities, willingness, and differences for the cooperation have become key factors affecting the ability of major powers to form joint leadership. As major actors in the global system of climate governance, China, the United States, and the European Union have capabilities and willingness to cooperate that are relatively impressive. Although all three parties have divergences in global climate governance, China and the United States have more in common on technical issues such as the design of constraint mechanisms. Therefore, China and the United States have achieved a provisional joint leadership in the global process of climate governance. After President Trump took office,however, the U.S.’s position on dealing with climate change has been completely reversed, its climate policy has been comprehensively pulled back, and the structure of the Sino-U.S. joint leadership for global climate governance has been severely impacted. Affected by these events, the leadership deficit of global climate governance has once again expanded. In this regard, China’s climate diplomacy needs to be adjusted accordingly. China should maintain the existing results of cooperation as much as possible in the short term and continue to seek Sino-U.S. cooperation in the long run, even trying to recast the structure of the Sino-American joint leadership for global climate governance.

Keywords: climate governance, Sino-American joint leadership, leadership for governance, Paris Agreement

About the Authors: Song Yiming is a doctoral studentat the School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.Yu Hongyuan is Research Fellow and Director at the Institute for Comparative Politics and Public Policy, Shanghai Institutes for International Relations.

Song Yiming Yu Hongyuan